The BoCaDuck college football ratings were developed in 2001.
After some early modifications, the system has remained consistent
since the beginning of the 2002-03 season. All ratings for previous
seasons are now computed based on the current version.
As with any computer
rating system, the criteria used in the BoCaDuck ratings are,
by their nature, subjective.
Everyone
has
a
different
opinion
on certain factors (use of margin of victory, home field advantage,
etc.) that should be used in developing a set of ratings. My goal is
to produce a set of reasonable and "objective" results based on the
"subjective" criteria used. If you agree with the criteria that I use,
I believe that you will find the ratings to be reasonable. If not,
then we have touched on one of the great things about college
football - debate. Either way, please enjoy. I always welcome any questions
or comments.
- All teams begin the season with a blank slate. There is no preseason
bias and performance in previous seasons is not considered. Because
only current season games are evaluated, the first BoCaDuck ratings
are typically published after week five.
- Game scores are used only to determine a game's winner. Margin
of victory (MOV) is not considered. This is a subject of much debate,
and there are defensible positions on both sides of the issue.
I have chosen not to use MOV for two reasons.
- A team's goal in any given game is to win. In the end, there is a winner
and a loser.
- There are too many factors that could influence the MOV for a game.
Mismatched teams, injuries, garbage points by either the winner
or loser, and weather are just some of the factors that could
influence the MOV. With so many variables, it is difficult to
evaluate the significance of a team's MOV.
- All games throughout the season are given equal weight. Late season games
count no more, or less, than early season games.
- A team's overall rating is determined by combining its "Win
Rating" and strength of schedule.
- The winner of each game is awarded points based on the opponent
and the location of the game. The win rating is the average of the points assigned
to each win. Please note that the win rating is not the same as winning percentage.
- Wins over Division 1A opponents are worth more than wins over non-Division
1A teams.
- The site of a game is weighted in descending order based on location
- Away, Neutral, Home.
- Combining these two factors, a win over a Division 1A team on the road
is worth the most, and a win over a non-Division 1A team at
home is worth the least. The other combinations have various
values in between.
- Losses are assigned zero points.
- A team's strength of schedule (SoS) is determined from the win ratings
of its opponents. Head-to-head games are not counted so as not
to inflate a losing team's SoS or degrade that of a winning team.
- Conference ratings are simply the average of the members' ratings.
What's a BoCaDuck, you ask? The name is derived from my rooting
interests. Of course, my like or dislike of any team has no bearing
on the rating system.
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